Beginners are quite often interested in the question of what skins can fall out in CS GO after the game, and whether it is realistic to get an expensive exclusive item almost at the start of cybersport activity. If you set aside probability theory, margin of error, overall percentage and complex mathematical models of calculation — you can get Dragon Lore at least in the first battle, playing on official servers. Only on them fall not only crates with collectible guns, but also full-fledged skins.
But let's come down from heaven to earth and reason soberly. If the chance of a secret or at least classified weapon was around 3-5%, the entire economy of the game would collapse instantly, and the current $30 000-50 000 rarities would not exist in principle. For Valve, CS:GO — is one of the most successful tools for making money and promoting its own Steam platform. Therefore, don't expect from comrade Gabe any indulgences and increased chances of dropping valuable drops.
If we refer to the post-game statistics, the average drop chance is as follows:
Whites (broadsword) — about 76%;
Blue (industrial) — 18%;
Blue (military/army) — 4%;
Purple (restricted/mythical) — 1%;
Pink (classified) — 0.2%;
Red (secret) — 0.0005%.
These are not the most accurate numbers, but over several years of actively playing CS:GO, community members have developed a similar pattern of item drops. At least now you know what skins can drop in CS GO after playing the game. Note that we are talking about ready-to-use models, not cases that still need to be opened with a key.
If we talk about boxes, the situation is as follows
:Blue — 80%;
Purple — 15%;
Pink — 3%;
Red — 0.6%;
Gold — 0.25%.
Not the most impressive numbers.
But if you dig even deeper and include extraneous items in the probabilities, the picture gets even more interesting. You do know that in CS GO, in addition to skins, graffiti drops after the game, which is almost a 50% chance of NOT getting a weapon. And it's extremely problematic to see the expensive drawing. It is much easier to buy it for 15-20 rubles, few people are interested in them.
What you should not expect from random
Let's imagine that you regularly log in to the game, steadily increase the level of your account and improve your rank, for which you receive modest but systematic rewards from Valve. But there are a number of items in the game that can't be knocked out at random, even on official servers. These include:
Any weapon and knife with a StatTrak counter (from cases only);
knives;
gloves;
most capsules with stickers and sprays (no more than 10% of the total number of items in the game are freely available);
gold-colored items;
collectible skins.
90% of the time you get a weapon skin from the 5 most recent collections that were added to the game. The chance of getting old-school pistols/rifles is extremely low, as well as the probability of knocking out a Bravo case in classic random.
Speed and frequency of items falling out
It is easy to find a lot of established myths on the net that you can get no more than four skins in a week. Yes and no. Valve is not stupid, they know a lot about bots, IDLE servers for farming, and gamers who can stay online for 16-20 hours a day. What they did was this: the longer you're in the game, the longer it will take to get a new item. The system works on the principle of the exponent. Let's say you got your first skin an hour after starting the game. The second will drop into your inventory in as little as 4-5 hours, the third — in a couple days, and the last — near the end of the week. Here is the confirmation of the myth of four things, although, in theory, they can rash almost after every battle.
Various niceties for visiting, leveling up and ranking are not taken into account — for this there is a separate progression and pattern.
Can you increase the drop
If you play honestly, but not the first year, then all legal attempts to rack up the skin counter will automatically fail. The game system is built in such a way that the greatest profit is received by newcomers without a premium account during the first three or four weeks.
From this follows a quite logical conclusion — creating a farm with bots. But you can't do the same system as with IDLE servers, you will have to play all matches fairly and only quit when the system allows you to do so. It is also recommended to put an alert on the servers restart. This moment comes on Wednesdays, at 4:00 MSC (GMT+3). At such times the chance to get something is the highest.
But most importantly — server must be official and protected by standard VAC anti-chit. And so all «breaking» modifications are out of the question. You'll be banned in three seconds and your inventory will be sealed.
There are other ways to speed up getting something rare and interesting, but they are paid. We're referring to operations like «Split the Net» or «Breakthrough». And not everyone is ready to allocate time to earn virtual Achivas and farm experience to increase rank and account level.
Profitability of skins
Now we have long and inspiringly told about the chances, the rate of falling out, the quality of items, but do they make sense? For newbies for sure yes, and the chirpy stuff can be pretty good visually. For example, the MAC-10 Indigo or the P90 Storm. Not the limit of dreams, but much better than stock.
But if you play not one year, there is no sense in gray and blue skins. That's when it's time to hunt for either cases or sales on the trading floors. By the way, we started our own, Lis-Skins Market, called Lis-Skins Market. Here you can find top skins for any weapon, agents, stickers, knives and many other interesting things at a very attractive price.
And if you have extra items in your inventory — give them to us, transfer the money to your balance and buy exactly the skin you have long dreamed of
.